China to reach its GDP target by 2020, expert believes

Almaty. November 28. Silkroadnews – China will be able to reach its GDP target of 80 trillion yuan by 2020, Deputy Director of RAS Far Eastern Studies Institute Andrey Ostrovsky believes.

“I think by 2020 China will reach the target and its GDP volume will exceed 80 trillion yuan”, A. Ostrovsky told in interview with “Xinhua”.

According to the expert, China’s economy growth rates are expected to decline.

“This is that very “new normality” the Chinese President Xi Jinping referred to two years ago. Till 2020 the economic growth rates will stand at the level of 6.5% to 7% per annum, followed by the level of 6%-6.5% in 2020-2025”, he added.

The expert also suggests that in some parts of the country the goal of “building the small prosperity society” set for 2021 can be achieved even earlier.

Among the problems that China has yet to resolve, the expert highlighted uneven development of the country’s regions and sectors of the economy, gap in living standards of population and lack of energy.

A. Ostrovsky also adds, not solved within the nearest years the environmental problem “will seriously hamper the development of the country’s economy”.

“It is necessary, first of all, to reduce the consumption of coal. The country’s leaders actively take measures to increase natural gas and oil consumption as well as the use of renewable energy sources - solar, wind power, hydroelectric power station, yet the share of coal in China’s energy mix still exceeds 70%”, A. Ostrovsky said.
The expert also believes labor shortage problem threatens China.

“It seems that China, with its large population should have a labor almost free and unlimited. In fact, though, “one child” policy has resulted in labor shortage to be observed in the near future. Last year the Plenum of the CPC Central Committee decided to abolish the policy of birth control, but this measure’s result will be seen in 20 years only, when “second children” will enter their working age”, he explained.