China can "push" the world economy into recession, warns Morgan Stanley

Almaty. July 15. Silkroadnews - China could push the global economy into recession, warns Morgan Stanley Investment Management, transfers the newspaper "Vedomosti".
"The next global recession will be made in China. In the next couple of years, China will most likely to be the most significant source of instability in the world economy", - says Director of Emerging Markets of Morgan Stanley Investment Management Ruchir Sharma.
If the recession in the world economy really begins, it will be the first time in 50 years, when at the same time there will be no decline in the US economy. Over the half-century the pace of global GDP fell below 2% over five periods (the last time - in 2008-2009.), And every time they coincided with a downturn in the US economy.
Opinion of R. Sharma reflects the growing influence of China, which is already the second largest economy by nominal GDP. According to Morgan Stanley, last year China accounted for 38% of world growth, while in 2010 - 23%.
Meanwhile, if the last decade China has grown by more than 10% per annum (the rate reached 14%), then from the excess of investment, lower demand for Chinese exports and a higher base of comparison, the economy every year more and more retarded.
According to the IMF report, released last week, the forecast for China's GDP growth in 2015 amounted to 6.8% and world GDP - decreased from 3.5% (the April estimate) to 3.3%.
"The Chinese economy will continue to slow as the country, in particular, will continue to experience problems with the reduction of the level of debt accumulated during the period of rapid growth", - said R. Sharma.
According to him, slowing down of China's GDP by 2 percentage points will be enough to lead to a recession the world economy.