Kazakhstan was classified as the country with the longest duration of crises in 10 years

Almaty. July 13. Silkroadnews – Kazakhstan and Russia financial models are referred to “autonomous class” of countries with average income level, characterized by the longest crises in 10 years, UzTAG reports with reference to study by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting to the International Financial Congress.
The study covered financial sectors of 63 states for 2004-2014, scale of financial intermediaries’ activities, depth and stability of financial markets, economic agents’ financial services, qualitative market indicators of competition, concentration, urgency and dollarization. Four models of the financial sector have been identified: “autonomous” (an average of 5.4 crisis years for 2004-2014), “overheated leaders” (4 crisis years), “balanced leaders” (3) and “junior partners” (3.9).
Autonomous countries list, besides Kazakhstan and Russia, includes Nigeria, Venezuela, Ukraine, Indonesia, Argentina, Mexico, Pakistan, Turkey, Colombia, Peru, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Macedonia, Philippines, Romania. It is noted, the group is characterized by strong government interference in the financial sector, bank-oriented nature of financial supervision, profitability and liquidity of banks and reliance on their own financial resources, mainly due to commodity exports inflows, a limited need for intermediaries. The group includes the financial systems of most countries with developing export-raw materials economy.
“As a whole, the countries within this model are characterized by a weaker development of the financial sector. They are also more vulnerable to banking crises compared to countries that belong to other models”, the study said.
The “overheated leaders” category includes the US, Canada, the Great Britain, Japan, Switzerland, South Korea, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Denmark, Iceland. These countries are characterized by strong national financial institutions, significant integration into global capital markets, “bubbles” in mortgage and real estate markets on the eve of the Great Recession. The state’s interference with the financial sector is observed due to overcoming the crisis.
The group of “balanced leaders” included Australia, New Zealand, Netherlands, Finland, Singapore, Italy, France, Belgium, Sweden, Germany, Austria, Greece, Israel, South Africa, Malaysia, Thailand, China. Here, the intermediaries dominate over markets, there are strong national financial institutions, integration into the global capital markets is harmonious, state’s role in the financial sector is restricted.
The “junior partners” list includes Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Panama, Chile, Brazil, India, Slovenia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. These countries are characterized by reliance on imports of long-term external resources and high public confidence in banks, ensuring approaching the leading countries’ indexes. The degree of government interference with the financial sector is assessed as significant.
Non-profit partnership “Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting” is an independent research organization of Moscow, specializing in economic forecasts for the short, medium and long term.